First off, I know that teams are different from year to year. I actually use this argument against pre-season polls. Second, I know that there are many other factors involved in wins & losses: coaching, preparation, attitude, execution (i.e. how well you run your offensive/defensive plays vs turnovers and penalties), and some luck.

With that in mind, I ran the season ending numbers for Pass Efficiciency Differential (PED) Differential (based on last years research - credit for this formula needs to go to IndyCoug on Cougarboard.com). Basically, it takes the difference between your offensive and defensive passing efficiciency and your opponents. The range of that differential is then compared to historical wins/losses since 2000. This calcuation is quite interesting in predicting an expected winner.

If my calculations are correct, then here is the breakdown:

1) @ Washington: I feel we have a good chance of winning this game. With the numbers from last year, (for on the road column), the differential was 59.7. That meant that the better team in this category (BYU, in this instance) won 74% of the time. Yes, this will be a tough AWAY game for us; I know. However, their offense wasn't that great, and their defense was horrible: nearly the bottom of the nation in Pass Efficiciency on defense.

I know that Locker SHOULD be better with a year's experience under his belt, and that the defense will get some new recruits. I also know that we are replacing the entire starting secondary and other key players on defense.

Keep in mind, as well, that our offense SHOULD be even better than last year, and the defense still has some great playmakers.

2) UCLA: While UCLA had a significantly better Defensive pass efficiency than Washington (actually, UCLA's was pretty close to ours), they lose some critical players on defense. (at least 2 will most like be drafted). The winning percentage with their numbers compared to ours for a home game is about 78%.


With all this in mind, I feel pretty good about our non-conference schedule. I see the potential of going 4-0 out of conference, as long as we EXECUTE (see my definition above: i.e. few penalties and less than 2 TOs). I feel we have a great chance of also ending our non-conference road losing streak to BCS teams that Mormonrasta keeps reminding us of.

As an interesting note, the team that had the SMALLEST differential with us was Utah. (The next smallest margin was TCU). This explains a lot as to why this game was so close, aside from the fact that it is a rivalry game.

For me, how well UW plays on offense depends on their O-line, and I don't think their line will be up to it at the beginning of the season.

All things being equal, UCLA's passing game should be better this year vs BYU with a healthy Patrick Cowan likely starting and a simplified Norm Chow offense in place. All things being equal, their pass defense shouldn't be as good with several key starters gone and with BYU offensive adjustments already in place.

Contributing factors may be 1) DeWayne Walker vs BYU, part III. Talk about familiarity! Not only has Walker studied BYU's offense, but by now he likely knows the BYU's player tendencies in detail. He probably won't even need to watch game film except to pick out tips from the NIU and UW games on how BYU's offense may adjust in 2008. He can likely craft a defensive gameplan to maximize his players potential vs BYU in his sleep. VS.2) As you said, Major, BYU's offense will be improved. Not only with higher execution but with better plays and gameplanning to beat UCLA.

So, UCLA's offense may be better at skill positions (+ QB, +RB (from the LV bowl), - receivers) but worse at O-line (3 new starters, I think. They'll also be playing their second game with a new offense. A chance to be better, but odds are less than 50-50.

UCLA's defense will still have excellent preparation but less talent and experience (IMO). An overall minus, compared to last year.

BYU will have the same offense with better game-planning for UCLA and more experience. A plus over last year.

BYU's defense loses quite a few players from last year but overall seems more athletic. Most of the new starters have significant playing experience. Overall, even, compared to last year.


To me, it looks like a grind-it-out game with UCLA's offense unable to match BYU's. BYU scores in the 20's and UCLA in the low teens.

Wow, great stuff guys. I am impressed.
I hear some people saying that UW will be tough but that we should beat them as they have been a "bottom dweller" team in the Pac10 the last few years...umm so was AZ and we know how that game played out at their house.
I know Bronco will have the team up for this game despite UWs past record. I think I am more nervous about UCLA than UW though. However, it seems like the positive and negatives of both games cancel each team out as far as which one I am more nervous about.

I'm much more worried about UW than UCLA. The Bruin's offense is a mess, if we limit turnovers we will be able to score on their defense. UW I don't know much about however. I do know that we suck on the road against decent teams.

The thing that scares me about UW is Locker's running ability. Anytime we play a team with a mobile quarterback, I have visions of Ratliff rushing for a bzillion yards against us in 2005. However, if his passing is still weak, we can probably game plan for that and make him beat us through the air. I'm not too worried about our ability to score on them - or anybody in the country, for that matter.

When looking at UW's record last year we need to also consider that they played a very tough schedule.

One other factor we have going for us in this matchup is that our game against UW is sandwiched between their season opener at Oregon (who in their right mind schedules a major conference rivalry game to start the season?), and their OOC game Oklahoma.

They will likely preceive us as the "easiest" of the three. Man are they in for a surprise...