BEwhyYOU wrote:

Mars wrote:

BlueRhyno wrote:

Why will AF be so bad?

Because they lost a 1000+ yard rusher, the MWC Offensive Player of the Year, and their 2nd-leading rusher as well, their 3-year starter at QB. That and their defense sucks.

Geez! Hard to argue with that logic!:blink:

Yeah, except I already did. That logic says that BYU, after losing Curtis Brown, John Beck, Fui Vakapuna (to injury), Cameron Jensen, Justin Robinson should also have been sub .500. Except we all know they weren't. Which says that there is more to College Football than who is graduating. I hated when people used that argument against the Cougars last preseason, and I don't think it flies for the Falcons either. Is there any camp info that indicates this year's roster is going to fall so far?

"Their defense sucks", though succinct, is a much better argument to make for why they may be sub .500. They allowed an average of 21 points a game last year, which is not great. BYU averaged 18 points allowed thanks to a 55 point loss to the Tulsa artillery. Air Force, in all 4 losses gave up more than 30 points. In their wins they usually held under 20 points.

Ok, this is delving into just argument and conjecture. Make your final points and I'll shut up until the season starts. If I'm wrong I'll apologize. But I think their new coach has things on the right track.

We replaced our talented guys with talented replacements. They'll have to replace their studs with players far less talented than ANYONE in the conference.

They lose ALL their studs on offense and all but one on defense.

The MWC has had a year of exposure to Calhoun's offense-that extra year would cost them 2 losses WITH their studs from last year, and should cost them 4 or so WITHOUT them. As evidence, notice how they trailed off at the end of the year (just like they ALWAYS do in FB AND B.

Here's how it will shake out-conf record first, OOC 2nd (w/ losses in parentheses).

BYU 8-0, 12-0 (What else!)
Utah 6-2, 8-4 (@ Michigan, Oregon State)
TCU 5-3, 8-4 (@ Oklahoma)
UNM 5-3, 7-5 (will lose 2/3 to A&M, AZ or @ Tulsa)
Wyo 4-4, 7-5 (@ Tennessee)
AFA 3-5, 5-7 (Navy, @ Houston)
CSU 2-6, 4-8 (Houston, @ Cal; should beat Colorado)
SDSU 2-6, 5-7 (loss either @ ND or @ San Jose State)
UNLV 1-7, 3-9 (@ ASU, will lose 1/2 of Iowa State or Nevada)

One thing about Air Force is that they always tend overachieve. Because they can't really recruit, they are left to draw from a pool of players that is smarter, more disciplined, and possess more leadership skills than the average D-I football player. While they may be elite athletes, their players still tend to be good overall athletes, such that they seem to be interchangeable--i.e., the difference between first string and second string at Air Force is less than at other conference schools.

That said, I generally pencil Air Force in for 6-6, which seems right this year as well, though if a few bounces go their way, 7-5 or even 8-4 isn't out of the question.

BYUtx wrote:

Here's how it will shake out-conf record first, OOC 2nd (w/ losses in parentheses).

BYU 8-0, 12-0 (What else!)

Of course. Go Cougs! 13-0!

Utah 6-2, 8-4 (@ Michigan, Oregon State)

I think Utah beats OSU at home. They have a fighting chance at Michigan under a new coach who doesn't have the pieces he needs to run his offense (ie, no Pat White at Michigan). They also get TCU at home which could lead to a 7-1 conference performance. Result: 9-3, likely, 10-2 not out of the question, 11-1 a definite possibility.

TCU 5-3, 8-4 (@ Oklahoma)
UNM 5-3, 7-5 (will lose 2/3 to A&M, AZ or @ Tulsa)
Wyo 4-4, 7-5 (@ Tennessee)

I think New Mexico wins 2 out of the 3 above. I like both TCU's and New Mexico's chances at 6-2 in conference. The August 30 TCU v. New Mexico opener will likely decide which team goes 6-2 and which goes 5-3. Both get Wyoming at home.

Probable result =

TCU 6-2, 9-3
UNM 5-3m 8-4
Wyo 4-4, 7-5

AFA 3-5, 5-7 (Navy, @ Houston)

Yeah, they have to replace a lot, but they also have a good new coach and seem to come up with guys each year that can plug holes. I think Air Force will get 3 OOC wins. They likely will beat Southern Utah and Army and win one of two against Navy and Houston.

CSU 2-6, 4-8 (Houston, @ Cal; should beat Colorado)
SDSU 2-6, 5-7 (loss either @ ND or @ San Jose State)
UNLV 1-7, 3-9 (@ ASU, will lose 1/2 of Iowa State or Nevada)

I think San Diego State wins 3 games in conference next year. They get UNLV, Colorado State, and Air Force at home. SDSU is my dark horse to finish 6-6.

Utah losing at home against OSU will be the annual Ute head-scratcher loss.

BlueRhyno wrote:

BEwhyYOU wrote:

Mars wrote:

BlueRhyno wrote:

Why will AF be so bad?

Because they lost a 1000+ yard rusher, the MWC Offensive Player of the Year, and their 2nd-leading rusher as well, their 3-year starter at QB. That and their defense sucks.

Geez! Hard to argue with that logic! :blink:

Yeah, except I already did. That logic says that BYU, after losing Curtis Brown, John Beck, Fui Vakapuna (to injury), Cameron Jensen, Justin Robinson should also have been sub .500.

That's assuming that Air Force and BYU are on equal recruiting grounds. While in reality, BYU is a typical 40th out of 120, while Air Force is usually more of a typical 110th.

The cupboard is bare much more often than not in Colorado Springs, making replacing their excellent players that much more difficult.

Calhoun is a great coach though, no argument there. I still pick the Falcons to finish 6th in the MWC this year and outside of a winning season and a bowl game.