Here's how I think the tournament seedings will play out. Asterisks (*) indicate that I virtually guarantee this will be that team's seeding.

1. BYU*
2. UNLV*
3. San Diego St.
4. New Mexico
5. Utah*
6. Air Force
7. TCU
8. Wyoming*
9. Colorado State*

BYU and UNLV are basically guaranteed their spots, barring a serious upset. If BYU loses one of their remaining "cakewalk" games and UNLV wins out, UNLV will be the #1 seed because they will be 2-0 against San Diego St. and New Mexico while BYU will be 1-1 against SDSU and 2-0 against New Mexico.

San Diego State and New Mexico are in a tight battle for #3. Both SDSU and New Mexico have one tough game left and one very easy game left (CSU for both). I think SDSU is more likely to beat Air Force @ Air Force than New Mexico is to beat UNLV @ home. However, those two games will be close. If New Mexico wins or both lose, New Mexico is #3. If SDSU wins and New Mexico loses, SDSU is #3.

Utah has no realistic shot at anything better than #5. To have any shot at #4, they'd have to win out (including at UNLV) and SDSU would have to lose at Air Force. If they lose any of their last 4 games, they're not going to be #4 (barring an insane CSU over SDSU game) because SDSU has the head-to-head advantage (1-1 against each other, but SDSU beat #1 BYU and Utah did not). Utah could fall from #5, but that's unlikely as well. The only way the fall from #5 is if they lose 3 of their last 4. I don't think that's two likely since 3 of those games are against the worst 3 MWC teams. If they lose 2, they likely tie with Air Force at worst and Utah has the tiebreaker over AFA (2-0 against them). TCU has too tough of a schedule left to catch Utah.

Air Force and TCU are also in a tight battle, but AFA has the inside edge. The winner of the game between these two (at Air Force) is likely to be #6 (but AFA might still be #6 even if they lose that game). Since it's at AFA, I give the edge to AFA (they beat TCU at TCU already this season).

Wyoming is virtually guaranteed #8 and CSU is virtually guaranteed #9.

A few other possibilities could occur but are EXTREMELY unlikely.

In other words, the only real seeding battles left are SDSU and UNM for #3 and #4 and Air Force and TCU for #6 and #7.

I predict the tournament will play out like this:

Play-in
#8 Wyoming over #9 CSU

First Round
#1 BYU over #8 Wyoming
#2 UNLV over #7 TCU
#3 SDSU over #6 AFA
#4 UNM over #5 Utah

Second Round
#1 BYU over #4 UNM
#3 SDSU over #2 UNLV (my upset special)

Finals
#1 BYU over #3 SDSU (rematch with a vengeance)


For those keep tracking, here's the tiebreaker formula in the MWC:

1. Head-to-head
2. Records against other MWC teams, from top to bottom of standings

I bet NM beats UNLV and UNM gets the 3 spot.

And...I am predicting CSU finally wins a game and beats Wyoming. They are due. Besides I would rather play CSU than Wyoming.

I think you are right that we end up playing UNM in the second round and we win that one.

As much as I would like the upset special, this is UNLV's tournement so UNLV will beat SDSU and it will be a nice BYU vs. UNLV championship, which we'll win. We're still out for blood against them after losing so bad at their place.

We'll then get a 7th seed.

Good summary there timmy. I think TCU gets the 7th spot, where you say CSU will. Probably an oversight. I also think that UNM rebounds and takes down UNLV at home this weekend. Then they should win their last game. SDSU is perplexing as they beat BYU, then lose on the road to UNLV. I still think they end up in the 4th spot.

Here's where it gets tricky. In the MWC tourney, I can see Utah upsetting SDSU in Vegas. I don't see UNM upsetting UNLV in Vegas, so I see a BYU/UNLV finals. It will be a close game, I hope BYU wins it, but I can't say they will. It'll be a pick'em game.

Now, if UNM wins out and wins one game in the MWC tourney, they get an invite to the NCAAs. If they lose to UNLV this weekend, then they need to win the tourney to get the autobid. I still think UNLV would get an invite.

AFA, TCU, Wyoming, and CSU can play spoiler all they want, but they ain't gonna win a game against the top 4 teams in the MWC come tourney time. I'll bet bacon on that one!!!

Gunk wrote:

I bet NM beats UNLV and UNM gets the 3 spot.

And...I am predicting CSU finally wins a game and beats Wyoming. They are due. Besides I would rather play CSU than Wyoming.

I think you are right that we end up playing UNM in the second round and we win that one.

As much as I would like the upset special, this is UNLV's tournement so UNLV will beat SDSU and it will be a nice BYU vs. UNLV championship, which we'll win. We're still out for blood against them after losing so bad at their place.

We'll then get a 7th seed.

If BYU wins out and wins the tourney they get a higher seed than a 7. If that were to happen BYU would be ranked about 16 going into the tourney. If you look at conference tournaments there will be a lot of teams in the top 25 to lose and that will keep moving BYU up in the polls. If they win out, they will be a 6 seed or higher because of their higher profile games and the fact that Boise State and Wake Forest are better than originally thought.

Cornellcoug wrote:

Gunk wrote:

I bet NM beats UNLV and UNM gets the 3 spot.

And...I am predicting CSU finally wins a game and beats Wyoming. They are due. Besides I would rather play CSU than Wyoming.

I think you are right that we end up playing UNM in the second round and we win that one.

As much as I would like the upset special, this is UNLV's tournement so UNLV will beat SDSU and it will be a nice BYU vs. UNLV championship, which we'll win. We're still out for blood against them after losing so bad at their place.

We'll then get a 7th seed.

If BYU wins out and wins the tourney they get a higher seed than a 7. If that were to happen BYU would be ranked about 16 going into the tourney. If you look at conference tournaments there will be a lot of teams in the top 25 to lose and that will keep moving BYU up in the polls. If they win out, they will be a 6 seed or higher because of their higher profile games and the fact that Boise State and Wake Forest are better than originally thought.

I would certainly take a 6th or higher seed any day and think we would deserve such if we win out. Whether we deserve or get a higher seed is another question, though. We're traditionally seeded one or two spots lower than we should be. The committee has no love for us. Once we start winning some NCAA tourney games again, then the love from the committee will come back. That's why I say we get a 7th seed.