I would love to see a pitcher win 30, but it's nearly impossible in this age of 5-man rotations, bullpen specialists, and emphasis on pitch counts. To emphasize the difference between 4-man and 5-man rotations, Denny McClain made 41 starts when he went 31-6 in 1968. His 37 decisions were more than Brandon Webb's career high of 35 starts in 2004. To win 30, Webb would obviously have to stay healthy and not miss a single start, pitch exceptionally well, and get incredibly lucky in two areas where he has (almost) no control: run-support and bullpen. Unfortunately, I'd say the chances are closer to .002-.003% than 2-3%.

By the way, here's an interesting little article on pitch counts.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-pitch-counts-hath-wrought/

I'm a Dodger fan through and through, and so when the Dbacks take it to my Dodgers, it hurts...but you got to recognize talent when it is out there and Webb is something special. He is flat out the best. But can he win 30? Even if he is healthy the whole year, given the Dbacks 5 man rotation, he will get perhaps 32 or so. I doubt he can win 30 of 32 starts, but man would than be something if he did...While he may not win 30, maybe he will be the first to never lose....now THAT would be something too

loonmj wrote:

I would love to see a pitcher win 30, but it's nearly impossible in this age of 5-man rotations, bullpen specialists, and emphasis on pitch counts. To emphasize the difference between 4-man and 5-man rotations, Denny McClain made 41 starts when he went 31-6 in 1968. His 37 decisions were more than Brandon Webb's career high of 35 starts in 2004. To win 30, Webb would obviously have to stay healthy and not miss a single start, pitch exceptionally well, and get incredibly lucky in two areas where he has (almost) no control: run-support and bullpen. Unfortunately, I'd say the chances are closer to .002-.003% than 2-3%.

By the way, here's an interesting little article on pitch counts.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/what-pitch-counts-hath-wrought/

As I pointed out previously, 28 of McLain's 31 wins came when he pitched a complete game. Last year, for example, the Tigers had something like 3 or 4 complete games from the entire staff.

Even going seven strong innings doesn't do you record any good if the bullpen can't close it out. McLain solved that problem very well, but coaches now days (with all the long term contracts) hope to get more than just a couple of good years out of a pitcher's arm. Winning 30+ games is now mainly a team effort.

Agreed: winning 30+ games is now mainly a team effort. Sorry, but I don't know how to quote a section.

One thing going against Webb is the D-backs' lack of a lights-out closer. Though I love seeing local guys do well, Brandon Lyon (Taylorsville HS, Dixie SC) isn't in the top echelon of closers. He's a good closer, but you wouldn't confuse him with Papelbon or Rivera (I feel dirty; I hate both the Red Sox and Yankees), or J.J. Putz last year (that's better; go M's).

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5455

7-0 now

loonmj wrote:

Agreed: winning 30+ games is now mainly a team effort. Sorry, but I don't know how to quote a section.

One thing going against Webb is the D-backs' lack of a lights-out closer. Though I love seeing local guys do well, Brandon Lyon (Taylorsville HS, Dixie SC) isn't in the top echelon of closers. He's a good closer, but you wouldn't confuse him with Papelbon or Rivera (I feel dirty; I hate both the Red Sox and Yankees), or J.J. Putz last year (that's better; go M's).

Right on!!!!