I got so fed up with the experts' "knowledge" (i.e. Beck's weak arm) that I decided to compare their predictions with the draft reality. It was interesting to see through the first 40 picks just how far off they were. Only 20% of the time (8/40) did they get it right. True, they couldn't really predict trades but I was interested to see when the experts thought a team needed defensive help they selected an offensive player. Just reinforces my hatred for pre-game/pre-draft/pre-season predictions. The only thing worse is grading the drafts, but that's a whole other post.

-----Team-------Projection-------Actual Draft-----

1 Oakland – JaMarcus Russell QB – JaMarcus Russell QB
2 Detroit – Gaines Adams DE – Calvin Johnosn WR
3 Cleveland – Brady Quinn QB – Joe Thomas OT
4 Tampa Bay – Calvin Johnson WR – Gaines Adams DE
5 Arizona – Joe Thomas OT – Levi Brown OT
6 Washington LaRon Landry S – LaRon Landry S
7 Minnesota – Adrian Peterson RB – Adrian Peterson RB
8 Atlanta – Levi Brown OT – Jamaal Anderson DE
9 Miami – Jamaal Anderson DE – Ted Ginn, Jr. WR
10 Houston – Amobi Okoye DT – Amobi Okoye DT
11 SF – Alan Branch DT – Patrick Willis LB
12 Buffalo – Paul Pozluszny LB – Marshawn Lynch RB
13 St. Louis – Adam Carriker DE – Adam Carriker DE
14 Carolina – Patrick Willis LB – Darrelle Revis CB
15 Pittsburgh – Lawrence Timmons LB – Lawrence Timmons LB
16 Green Bay – Greg Olsen TE – Justin Harrell DT
17 Denver (trade) – Jarvis Moss DE
18 Cincinnati – Leon Hall CB – Leon Hall CB
19 Tennessee – Dwayne Jarrett WR – Michael Griffin FS
20 New York – Darrelle Revis CB– Aaron Ross CB
21 Jacksonville (trade) – Reggie Nelson FS
22 Cleveland (trade) - Brady Quinn QB
23 KC – Justin Harrell DT – Dwayne Bowe WR
24 NE – Marshawn Lynch RB – Brandon Meriweather FS
25 Carolina (trade) – Jon Beason OLB
26 Dallas (trade) – Anthony Spencer DE
27 New Orleans – Dwayne Bowe WR – Robert Meachem WR
28 SF (trade) – Joe Staley OT
29 Baltimore – Anthony Spencer OLB – Ben Grubbs G
30 San Diego – Brandon Meriweather S – Craig Davis WR
31 Chicago – Robert Meachem WR – Greg Olsen TE
32 Indy – Anthony Gonzalez WR – Anthony Gonzalez WR
33 Arizona (trade) – Alan Branch DT
34 Buffalo (trade) – Paul Posluszny LB
35 Tampa Bay – Justin Durant LB – Arron Sears OT
36 Philadelphia (trade) Kevin Kolb QB
37 San Diego (trade) Eric Weddle SS
38 Oakland (trade) Zach Miller TE
39 Atlanta – Michael Griffin S - Justin Blalock OT
40 Miami – Ben Grubbs OG – John Beck QB

Well, I know once guys scores 80%+ every year, but I don't believe he publishes his predictions. Just goes to show you that the real experts keep their mouths shut.

DearbornDolfan

Well, I know once guys scores 80%+ every year, but I don't believe he publishes his predictions. Just goes to show you that the real experts keep their mouths shut.

With that criteria, I guess I score 100% every year. :roll:

Usually, I am very skeptical concerning the analysis of the Mel Kipers of the world when they do not spend a significant amount of time in the film room. However, looking at the draft predictions and where people were actually drafted, the experts did not predict draft order too badly (not to be confused with whether or not a pick will actually turn out to be quality). What I mean by that is that almost all of what the experts deemed first round talent were drafted in the first round. You cannot expect the experts to be 100 percent correct in where players will be drafted because just one unexpected pick would significantly mess up the rest of the picks. You also have to factor in that some teams are drafting for need and some are drafting for the best available player left on the board. That being said, there were very few surprises in the first round.

Here is the list of obvious "expert" pick flops:

1--Brady Quinn--no where near where he was "supposed" to be drafted (3rd). Makes you wonder if the "experts" dissected his game film at all.

Other than that, nothing really stands out as a really poor prediction (the Ginn pick came out of nowhere).

cougarfan87

Usually, I am very skeptical concerning the analysis of the Mel Kipers of the world when they do not spend a significant amount of time in the film room. However, looking at the draft predictions and where people were actually drafted, the experts did not predict draft order too badly (not to be confused with whether or not a pick will actually turn out to be quality). What I mean by that is that many of the players drafted fell into slots within four or five places of where they were supposed to be drafted. You cannot expect the experts to be 100 percent correct because just one unexpected pick would significantly mess up the rest of the picks. You also have to factor in that some teams are drafting for need and some are drafting for the best available player left on the board. That being said, there were very few surprises in the first round.

Here is the list of obvious "expert" pick flops:

1--Brady Quinn--no where near where he was "supposed" to be drafted. Makes you wonder if the "experts" dissected his game film at all.

Other than that, nothing really stands out as a really poor prediction (the Ginn pick came out of nowhere).

We can thank Beck for that. Since Miami wanted Beck more than they wanted Quinn. 8)

I actually don't think the "experts" really did all that bad. Just glancing over your list it looks like 8 of the top 40 picks were correct. Given the relatively large number of potential first day picks, I think it's impressive that anyone got 20% right.

Imagine before the college football season starts trying to rank each the top 40 teams in the exact order they will finish in the polls at the end of the year. I think anyone would be lucky to get 20% right--expert or otherwise.