If played today, which games could the Cougars win? PDF Print E-mail
A_King  |  Thursday, October 6, 2005, 4:50 pm
Aaron King
COUGARBLUE

Just how close are we to witnessing a fourth losing season at BYU?

Evaluating BYU and future opponent's strengths and weaknesses, we can see just how close BYU is to a losing season for the fourth year in a row. But the analysis says that if BYU can keep their heads up they will end 6-5. Using up-to-date statistics from each team, we pit BYU against their opponents evaluating seven critical categories: scoring offense and defense, passing offense and defense, rush offense and defense along with turnover margin. With conference opponents we display the conference ranking and the statistic earning the team that ranking. Against their final OOC opponent, Notre Dame, we show the national ranking of each team. All statistics used are overall and up to date according to NCAA stats.

Later in the season the strengths and weaknesses of both teams will change, although if teams remain somewhat consistent this will be a good gauge of where the Cougars' season may be heading and will show how possible or impossible a winning season in 2005 can be.


New Mexico



Analysis Score: BYU 3 - NM 3 The largest margin of difference are the team's rushing abilities, or I should say rushing statistics so far this season. Although records say different, these teams are equally matched. Where one team is strong offensively the other has enough strength defensively.
Turnover Margin Edge: New Mexico has a turnover margin of +1 to BYU's -5 turnover margin.
King's prediction: The only team to beat New Mexico, UTEP, was a passing offense. If our passing game is going well against New Mexico and if Anae can take the criticism positively by using the rushing game more then BYU can win this in a close one. Both teams are desperate for a conference victory, so don't expect either team to come out flat. If BYU has learned from the last two weeks, and if they can win the turnover battle especially then I give this one to the Cougars 28-24.


Colorado State



Analysis Score: BYU 3 - CSU 3 Again, these teams are equally matched. The largest margin is in the ability to score. While BYU has had two games of high scoring, they have also had two games of very low scoring. CSU has been consistent in scoring an average of 33.8 ppg. and will prove a worthy opponent when they come to Cougar Town for homecoming.
Turnover Margin Edge: CSU at -1.
King's prediction: Homecoming for the Cougars should give them an edge. But, if I am correct in predicting a close victory over New Mexico then the Cougars will have some heart and confidence coming into this game. Homecoming in Cougar Town will mean much more than a home-game in October. Key players will be back for this game and the Cougars have a chance to look like they did against TCU minus the fourth quarter. If Anae will rush Brown and Tahi each 15 times or more this game, the Cougars will have a dominant victory. BYU 48-28


Notre Dame



Analysis Score: BYU 2 - ND 4 All signs point to a loss. Notre Dame outplays BYU in every area except for the passing game. But Brady Quinn has kept ND ranked 11th in the country and so this game will depend on BYU's coverage ability, which isn't nearly as bad as Notre Dame's. Who would have thought?
Turnover Margin Edge: Notre Dame ranks nationally 16th with a 1.20 and BYU ranks at 108th with a -1.25.
King's prediction: I can believe. With Notre Dame's passing attack being as strong as BYU's this game will really come down to turnovers. BYU has been lagging behind in takeaways, but have gladly given up two or more turnovers a game. If BYU can get two turnovers in South Bend and if they can capitalize on them with touchdowns they BYU has a prayer in this one. But, I wouldn't put my money on it. ND 41-30


Air Force



Analysis Score: BYU 3 - AF 3 Once again, conference parity rings true and shows in the statistics. Air Force comes in as the third conference opponent so far with an even 3-3 score. BYU was dominating this one until Air Force caught up with the running game. Whether it is defending the run or attacking with the run, Air Force leads BYU. However, if you look closely you'll notice that Air Force only beat BYU out by 3.6 yards. Had BYU stopped one more rush last week they would have claimed 4th in the MWC.
Turnover Margin Edge: Air Force leads us, but with only -3. Although AF has the edge, this one could go either way.
King's prediction: With this game at home and with Air Force's pass defense landing in 8th in the conference, Beck and company should have a HAYDAY with this team. Remember, this is the team I am predicting to be coming off straight conference victories against NM and CSU and off the loss with Notre Dame. They will know that they cannot allow any more losses if they hope to salvage their hopes for a bowl game -- the conference should have 5 bowl eligible teams at the end of this season -- thus BYU should and will run away with this one giving Air Force a 56-21 pounding at home.


UNLV



Analysis Score: BYU 4 - UNLV 2 Finally, advantage BYU. While UNLV strongest defensive suit is against the rushing game, BYU's strongest offensive suit is the passing game where UNLV falls dead last in conference giving up an average of 302.2 ypg. and you should remember that their schedule has included Nevada, Idaho, and Utah State.
Turnover Margin Edge: EVEN Both UNLV and BYU have a turnover margin of -5 at this point in the conference.
King's prediction: Unless things entirely change down in Las vegas, and if BYU can play the way I have predicted so far, then they should continue the success at Sam Boyd Stadium and will hand the Rebels the whooping they deserve this year on top of unfinished business from last year with a victory. The reason I believe this will end in a lopsided score, is because 80-100% of our defense should be healthy enough to play and not only will the starters be back, but the experienced gained by the second and third string defenses will make a huge difference. BYU 42-3


Wyoming



Analysis Score: BYU 1 - WYO 5 Advantage big time Wyoming. This makes Wyoming a stronger looking team than Notre Dame! One has to realize the strength of schedule is different, so while credit is deserved up in Laramie you can't start making any statements that Wyoming is better than the Irish. Wyoming's defense is the best in the conference and the most consistent.
Turnover Margin Edge: Wyoming has the most decided turnover margin advantage of any team BYU faces. +5 to BYU's -5
King's prediction: If Wyoming plays like this all season, and BYU kicks it up a notch and plays like I am predicting the rest of the season then this game is up for grabs. But, the reality right now is that if BYU wins this one up in Laramie it would have to be considered an upset. Wyoming could beat TCU this weekend and will receive front-team honors for the MWC championship. While this game likely won't be for the championship for the Cougars, it could be the last of two wins Wyoming needs to claim an outright championship. Wyoming will come ready to play. However, if history is any indicator, when the Cowboys are faced with high expectations they will struggle through the game. Can anyone say 1996 WAC championship rerun? BYU will be lucky if they have won out to this point and so will Wyoming. Unless the stats change considerably, Wyoming will be the dominant team and they will have the edge at home in their weather. Cowboys 20-17


Utah



Analysis Score: BYU 3 - UTAH 3 The final equal match-up for the Cougars. The biggest margin is in the rushing offense. BYU has to get their rushing numbers up by this game. Being the final game of the season, and a rivalry. All of this information should be thrown out the window. Like Alema Harrington always says, "This game is 50-50."
Turnover Margin Edge: Where Utah have hurt themselves with turnovers they have made up for it to break even +0.
King's prediction: This is a rivalry game. Is there anything I can say here other than I would wish for nothing else then for the Cougars to beat the Utes?!?! I am only going to waste my time saying that the Cougars can exploit the rush defense of Utah if they can get their rushing numbers up. With this game being 50-50 I wouldn't be surprised if that was the score at the beginning of overtime. But, in Cougar Town and LES the Cougars bring home the victory and their first winning season in four years. BYU 35-28

King's final say:

The Cougars could salvage a 1-3 start to the season and finish with a 6-5 record overall, two wins less then I predicted early in the summer. With losses against TCU and SDSU where I predicted victories, the Cougars have shoved my prognosticating abilities to the wolves. But, if statistics up until this point have anything to say the Cougars have great chances of winning five of their next seven.

If they can get on a winning roll, then it isn't that far-fetched that they beat the improved Wyoming team and end the season 7-4 going to a bowl game with the chance of an 8-4 season. But, I'll stop with the pipe dream until BYU shows up with a victory in New Mexico.
 
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