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Five reasons BYU could beat Notre Dame |
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A_King | Tuesday, October 18, 2005, 10:45 pm
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Aaron King
COUGARBLUE
"I don't think they go into the Notre Dame game as underdogs. They are an equal match-up at this point, but we'll have to see how that changes as the season begins."
That was my comment back on August 1st concerning the Notre Dame game. Now, having seen how the Irish have improved, the Cougars go into South Bend as definite underdogs. Will they have a chance though?
Sure, here's five reasons why:
In a battle of strong quarterbacks Beck can out perform.
If we see a strong passing performance from both Beck and Quinn this game, the quarterback with the ball last will win. Comparing best to best, Beck edges Quinn barely:
Notre Dame can't stop the pass.
Under the assumption that the passing attack will be strong on both sides, a crucial factor for this game will be each team's pass defense. BYU's pass defense this season has left plenty to be desired, yet according to the stats, Notre Dame's pass defense is even worse! BYU ranks a below average 79th in the nation and Notre Dame is an even poorer 114th.
That statistic is terrible, at least until you realize the Irish's three worst games came against Michigan State, USC, and Purdue. Three offenses whose passing attacks rank 10th, 4th, and 16th respectively.
Notre Dame defenders allow an average of 304.83 yards per game and have given up eight touchdowns through the air. In contrast, BYU defenders only allow 241.33 yards per game and have only given up 6 touchdowns. However, the Cougars three toughest passing opponents rank 19th, 28th, and 66th. Certainly not as impressive.
In my opinion, the Irish pass defense is better than the Cougars but when faced with top-notch passing opponents they crumble allowing over 300 yards to each.
In their worst game, Notre Dame gave up 408 yards to the Washington Huskies who rank 49th in pass offense averaging 289 yards per game.
If Notre Dame wants to win they cannot allow Beck to have a 300+ game. Problem is, Beck and his receivers are hungry. I fully expect them to surpass the 300 mark.
Notre Dame could suffer from a USC game hangover.
Scenario: BYU was 1-1 on the season and knew they had a chance at a Mountain West Conference championship but had to prove it in their conference opener against TCU. They had a two-week build up to the game because of a "bye" week allowing for more practice and deeper focus. The game arrives and BYU has their best game of the whole season yet loses in overtime, 50-51. Shocked, but not visibly destroyed, the Cougars looked to have their way with an "easier" opponent, San Diego State, that following Saturday. Well, we all know how that went.
Sure I'm comparing apples and oranges, but this scenario is similar to what the Notre Dame team just went through and could go through with the Cougars.
The Irish were given two weeks to prepare for what was their most anticipated game of the season. The hype was huge! The pep rally held the night before had more attendance than half of the Mountain West Conference games last Saturday! This team was ready to upset the nation's top team, two-time defending national champion, USC. The Irish fans were high on "what ifs", exuberant anticipation, and even some optimistic expectations.
But, just like the Cougars, defeat was snatched from the hands of victory in the final minute of the game.
Fans charged the field, head coach Charlie Weis had his arms raised in celebration, Irish teammates jumped in jubilation while the clock rolled down to triple zero declaring victory for the Irish ... yet the real ending came later when officials ruled that there were enough seconds left for one last Trojan play, a play that sealed the Irish fate in a 34-31 loss.
If Notre Dame can come back from the emotional, physical, and mentally exhausting roller coaster ride of last week's game, then they deserve a win against BYU.
Two unique schemes the Irish never face.
In his press conference Tuesday, Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weis said of BYU, "This team is unique. They have a different defense with this 3-3-5. They have a different offense. We have enough of a challenge getting used to two totally different schemes than what we see week in and week out."
He knows it, Bronco and Anae knows it. Our team is unique compared to every opponent the Irish have and will face this year.
Last year Brady Quinn was completely confused by the scheme getting sacked three times. BYU has to take advantage of this and come with the speed and aggressiveness that they showed last week against Colorado State.
Bronco must have his best healthy eleven ready for this game.
On offense, Robert Anae gained full support from Cougar faithful last week with his gameplan against the Rams. Aside from fans looking for more plays to Watkins, Anae was heralded as a man who made zero mistakes. If his gameplan for the Notre Dame game can be as successful exploiting a defense's weaknesses then this game will be BYU's first victory over a ranked opponent in years.
New confidence builds at BYU.
On both sides of the ball, BYU is more confident than they have been this whole season and it shows.
BYU's defense who only had seven sacks in five games, with renewed confidence earned four more in just one game and against a team who had only allowed three prior to last Saturday.
On the side of the offense, they have only allowed 14 sacks keeping Beck healthy and gaining 692 yards on the ground. This offensive line is really beginning to believe in themselves and each other, making this unit the most improved offensive unit this season. Last year they totaled 1,135 yards, and need only 443 more yards to equal that in 2005. Against CSU they had the chance to prove their strength in the trenches and it was a game of complete physical domination.
BYU enters Saturday's game on a two-game winning streak that required two brilliant closing drives to seal the victories. BYU has the momentum and confidence that the Notre Dame team may have just lost.
Coach Weis is doing his part to restore any lost confidence by declaring this upcoming BYU game their "home opener" for the second half of their season. Will it help?
BYU has a confidence that they haven't had in three years and this game will be the ultimate proving ground where confidence becomes swagger.
King's Prediction
I have already predicted a Notre Dame victory of 41-30. While this score is very likely and is the most favorable of predictions. I recognize that someone needs to predict what a Cougar upset could look like.
Yes, defense will be the key to keep Notre Dame from outscoring our offense, but a bigger key is that our offense needs to play similar to the TCU game in order for BYU to have a chance. I will go with BYU 31 Notre Dame 28. I believe the Irish will have the advantage in the fourth going ahead 28-24, but if they give Beck a two-minute drill opportunity he will lead a victorious drive down the field 80 yards and take the lead in the final 30 seconds going up 31-28.
Additionally, BYU has to play a turnover free game in order for this upset to happen.
Extra points:
According to NCAA.org BYU has a stronger schedule than Notre Dame:
Cumulative: BYU 46th ND 63rd
Past opponents: BYU 12th ND 45th
Future opponents: BYU 69th ND 64th
Aaron King can be reached at
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