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Bowl picture clear for BYU, but not bowl opponent |
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A_King | Monday, November 14, 2005, 5:23 pm
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Aaron King
COUGARBLUE
BYU's magic number was six wins, and finally after three years they've reached it.
If they play a Pac-10 opponent the odds are that it's going to be Arizona State or California. The Emerald bowl may be without an eligible Pac-10 team and that leaves two of three MWC bowl tie-ins with a big question mark.
Without knowing where TCU is going to go, BYU could play in any one of the three, Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas bowl, Poinsettia Bowl, and the Emerald Bowl. Chances are high that BYU is heading to the Las Vegas Bowl. But, who will they play?
The Pac-10 conference's 5th and 6th place teams are tied-in to the Las Vegas and Emerald bowls respectively. With a quick look at the Pac-10, not including USC, UCLA, and Oregon, the teams competing are the California Bears, Stanford Cardinal, Arizona State Sun Devils, and the Oregon State Beavers.
California Bears 6-4 (3-4)
The Bears are the only team with bowl eligibility already. At 6-4 the Bears last game is against the Cardinal in Stanford. A win and they will be heading to Phoenix or Vegas. But, a loss will send the Bears to the Emerald bowl. At 3-4 in conference play, a loss to in-conference Stanford would only hurt that record even more placing the Bears at 3-5 dropping them from a possible tie for fourth in the conference to sixth.
If they beat Stanford: They could accept invitations from the Insight bowl or the Las Vegas bowl.
If they lose: They would need OSU or ASU to lose in order to leave the Emerald Bowl open.
Chance of playing the Cougars: High, they may appear in the Vegas or Emerald bowls.
Stanford Cardinal 5-4 (4-3)
The Cardinal are the big winners or losers in this one, and this weekend's match-up will decide it all for them. A victory guarantees them a trip to Phoenix, but a loss sends them into the following week's match-up against a powerful No. 6 Notre Dame. No one is going to give them a chance against the Irish even though they have the Fightin' Irish at home. Stanford needs to focus on beating California this weekend or their bowl hopes are gone.
If they beat the Bears: They get sent to Phoenix to face a Big East opponent in the Insight bowl.
If they lose: The Cardinal would have to pull a miracle upset against Notre Dame to become bowl eligible.
Chance of playing the Cougars: Zero chance. Ok, small miracle if they beat Notre Dame and go to Emerald or Las Vegas.
Arizona State Sun Devils 5-5 (3-4)
The Sun Devils are a very good team this year losing only by 10 points to the nation's top team Southern Cal. Their worst loss came at the hand of the Oregon Ducks in a 14 point margin. This Sun Devil team is strong and will provide the best opponent for any MWC team in a bowl game this season, and they only have to beat in-state rival Arizona to become bowl eligible. If they become bowl eligible, they could potentially be involved in a four-way tie for fourth place in the Pac-10, but they would have the most likely chance of an invitation to the Insight bowl which is played in Phoenix, Arizona.
If they beat Arizona: They'll be heading to the Insight or Las Vegas bowl.
If they lose: They stay home for the holidays ineligible for a post-season bowl game.
Chance of playing the Cougars: High. If eligible, they will go to Vegas or the Insight bowl. Depends on the Stanford - Cal game.
Oregon State Beavers 5-5 (3-4)
The Beavers are one win away from bowl eligibility. But, they have to do it against in-state rival No. 10 Oregon. A wise betting man would put his money on the Ducks, especially with this one being played on Duck turf. Will the Oregon State Beavers pull the huge upset and beat Oregon? I doubt it. But...
If they beat the Ducks: They have a guarantee tie for 4th or 5th in the Pac-10. Although they beat Cal, they still lost to ASU and Stanford sending them to the Emerald bowl.
If they lose: They stay home for the holidays, but celebrate that early victory over Boise State.
Chances of playing the Cougars: Very slim. Only if the Cougars go to the Emerald and OSU upsets the Ducks.
Crazy possibilities:
If California beats Stanford then the only chance the Pac-10 has for a 6th team being eligible for a post-season bowl game is if either Oregon State upsets nationally 10th ranked Oregon, or Stanford upsets 6th ranked Notre Dame.
Stanford needs to win this weekend to give the Pac-10 their best chance of fulfilling all of their bowl agreements. Without that victory, the talented Pac-10 conference might not be able to send anyone to the Emerald bowl leaving a very empty slot in San Francisco.
Who is BYU going to play then?
If BYU goes to Vegas then they could meet the California Bears or the Arizona State Sun Devils.
If BYU goes to the Emerald or the Poinsettia bowl, they could end up playing anyone creating a chance for a very interesting match-up.
In conclusion, the two most possible opponents for BYU will be the Arizona State Sun Devils then the California Bears.
I am in favor of a Sun Devil - Cougar matchup, if BYU plays some of their best football, then this game may be the 2005 equivalent of the 2004 Liberty bowl where BSU lost to Louisville 44-40. But it's going to take a terrific BYU football game to win that one and well...that's what makes it interesting.
Aaron King can be reached at
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CORRECTION: a reader pointed out a flaw in the original article posted earlier. Aaron King assumed that the California Bears were a lock for the Insight bowl with an overall record of 7-4, when they actually were not with Arizona State having a chance to tie their conference record of 4-4. A 4th place tie could likely keep Arizona State in Arizona for the Insight bowl, moving the Cal Bears to the Vegas bowl. This article has been changed to account for that flaw. |
