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BYU Will Break the Top-25 |
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JaredCowley | Tuesday, October 31, 2006, 1:35 pm
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By Jim Vallen
COUGARBLUE
The Last time that BYU was ranked in the Top-25 of the AP poll was at the end of the 2001 season.
That season saw BYU climb into the Top 10 with a 12-0 record and hopes of breaking the BCS for the first time by a mid-major college, but had lost their last two games of the season to Hawaii (72-45) and the Liberty Bowl against Louisville (28-10). They finished that season at number twenty-five and then disappeared from the screen.
So now four seasons have come and gone without the Cougars being an AP darling and being part of the AP ranking of the best twenty-five NCAA Div1-A (or “Bowl Division” as the NCAA has spun it to the fans to deemphasize the fact that the BCS really rules this level of NCAA football and the NCAA really has no control to create a championship tournament if they even were inclined to do) schools.
In 2006, after BYU has now won their last five games and sport a 6-2 record with the disclaimer that most ardent BYU supporters point out, that the program is only two field goals from being undefeated at 8-0, there is legitimate talk about BYU once again rejoining that select fraternity.
As of last Sunday, BYU was ranked number twenty-seventh with four games remaining on their regular schedule and a bowl game.
They have the potential to end this season at 10-2 if they don’t lose any game that they will probably be favored to win. That would then bring them to a probable bowl season match in the Pioneer Pure Vision Las Vegas Bowl at 6:00 PM (MST) on December 21st in 40,000 capacity Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas, NV with a fourth place Pac-10 team yet to be determined.
Let’s just pretend they do that exactly and end the season 11-2. Will they, under that scenario, finally break the AP Top-25 if not sooner?
Probably, but there really isn’t a lot of room to move any time soon. The major reason is that the AP poll is put forward by the media representatives of many large newspapers, etc. and these folks tend to bring in a very regional bias into their picks.
Just two weeks ago Notre Dame’s head coach Charlie Weis complained that his team that had faced a bye week had been bumped down in the polls and one of the teams that had jumped his was also involved in a bye week. Such a comment just causes a BYU fan to smile as they say welcome to our life as they respond to the team that only has to say boo and they’re in the top-25. It hasn’t ever and never will under the present procedure be fair or make sense.
What is the definition of “fair”. I’ve always been told that the only “fair” is the county fair and it’s already over for the year.
So let’s break down the teams that stand in front of BYU in the polls and see the possibility that one of them will lose and make way for the Cougars of BYU.
AP Rank/record/conference/games remaining
14 – Boise State 8-0 WAC (Fresno State, @San Jose State, Utah State, @Nevada)
Boise State will probably be favored in all of these games with the Nevada game being the most challenging, but it’s not likely that they will ever fall out of the Top-25 or behind BYU, even if they were to lose one.
15 – Rutgers 7-0 Big East (#5 Louisville, @Cincinnati, Syracuse, @#3 West Virginia)
Rutgers, one of only six teams remaining with an undefeated record faces two top-5 teams and Cincinnati, who gave Ohio State a tough first half and lost to Louisville at Louisville by six points. Both of these top-5 opponents have the potential to drop Rutgers. It’s hard to say though how much Rutgers would drop with two losses to two top-5 teams. They probably would not necessarily drop from the top-25. A Cincinnati loss on top of those two probable losses would drop Rutgers behind BYU. So cheer for Louisville, Cincinnati and West Virginia.
16 – Boston College 7-1 ACC (@#22 Wake Forest, Duke, Maryland, @Miami)
In my book, with 1-3 losses this season, Boston College should always be ranked ahead of BYU just because they beat them in head-to-head competition. It doesn’t matter that I believer BYU to actually be the better team. The Duke game is the only possible “sure win” on their remaining schedule while any of the three other could give Boston College a game. A win over Wake Forest will probably ensure Boston College of a top-25 finish, even with one loss to one of the other three teams. At present, Boston College is the top-ranked ACC team, who has a championship game, which currently is projecting to be against #20 Georgia Tech. A loss to one of the top-25 teams on their remaining schedule, coupled with a loss in the ACC championship could drop them close to the bottom of the top-25, but it would take a loss to Duke, Maryland or Miami to really drop them. Root for those three teams.
17 – Wisconsin 8-1 Big Ten (#32 Penn State, @#34 Iowa, Buffalo)
Wisconsin will be favored to win these last three games, but the two Big Ten foes could give them a game. Iowa has been basically a disappointment this season compared to where it was thought they would be. The Buffalo game should not be a challenge. It might be better to cheer for Wisconsin in these games though because a win by Iowa or Penn State could be just enough to catapult either team into the Top-25 and right over top of BYU. Cheer on the Badgers.
18 – Oklahoma 6-2 Big 12 (@#21 Texas A&M, Texas Tech, @Baylor, @#35 Oklahoma St.)
This is one of the better set-ups for BYU if Oklahoma runs the table and beats all four of these teams. That would clear out Texas A&M from in front of BYU and make sure Texas Tech and Oklahoma State don’t upset Oklahoma and jump BYU. The reality is though that all these teams except Baylor could beat Oklahoma and it wouldn’t be that big of an upset what with Oklahoma now without their starting quarterback that was lost in fall camp and now their top running back in Adrian Peterson. The Oklahoma State game is a big rivalry that often requires the records of both teams to be thrown out and several times the under dog, which is usually OSU, has won. But I think we just cheer on the Sooners so that they clear out at least one of the teams ahead of us.
19 – Clemson 7-2 ACC (#30 Maryland, North Carolina St., South Carolina)
Clemson has been ranked as high as #10 this season. They are the second ACC team in front of BYU and will be favored in all three of these games, especially considering that the schedule makers favored them greatly by setting them up with their last three games at home. The Clemson/South Carolina game is a classic rivalry known as the "Battle of the Palmetto State". Rivalry games are not always predictable. This might be a similar situation as Oklahoma in that Clemson beating all three of these teams might be more favorable to ensure that the team that might upset Clemsen wouldn’t then leap frog over BYU as has been known to happen. One loss might, but two losses would certainly drop them out of the top-25. A win by Maryland though could be a catapult for Maryland to jump BYU. Root for North Carolina State and South Carolina.
20 – Georgia Tech 6-2 ACC (@North Carolina State, @North Carolina, Duke, @Georgia)
ACC team number three in BYU’s path. Georgia Tech has been as high as #18. They have almost the opposite situation than fellow ACC team Clemson in that three of their remaining four games are on the road. Tech should be favored in all contests, but favored has no meaning in the annual "Clean, Old-fashioned Hate" rival game between Tech and Georgia. Georgia had been sailing along and was ranked #10 when they lost consecutive games to the boys from those two schools in the state north of Georgia, Tennessee and Vanderbilt. Now they have dropped out of the top-30 altogether. That’s quite a drop from #10. I think a loss by Georgia Teach to any of the teams left on their schedule will allow BYU to pass them in the rankings.
21 – Texas A&M 8-1 Big 12 (#18 Oklahoma, #29 Nebraska, @#4 Texas)
Here is our boy most likely to drop out with the three games they have scheduled. Win Oklahoma or Texas and there’s no touching them, but a loss to two of the tree is very likely and even if they beat Oklahoma, that could knock them back past BYU. But once again, the Texas A&M/Texas clash, known as “The Lone Star Showdown” is a classic rivalry that can bring out the best of a lesser team. A win by A&M over Texas would keep A&M securely in front of BYU. Cheer for Oklahoma and Texas and hope they lose to Nebraska so they don’t jump BYU.
22 – Wake Forest 7-1 ACC (#16 Boston College, @Florida State, #23 Virginia Tech, @#30 Maryland)
ACC team number four in front of BYU. The worse case scenario is that these ACC teams don’t have a dominant team that takes them all down and that by losing and then upsetting the other that they stay about where they are at and in BYU’s way. All four of their remaining games will be tough for the Demon Deacons, especially Boston College. It’s very probably that either Wake Forest will knock Virginia Tech down past BYU or by losing to Tech, Wake Forest will themselves tumble.
23 – Virginia Tech 6-2 ACC (@Miami, Kent State, @#22 Wake Forest, Virginia)
ACC team number five in front of BYU. If the Tech team that dominated Clemson last weekend shows up for the rest of the season, then Tech is heading up the polls. Their biggest challenge is Wake Forest. The Virginia/Virginia Tech rivalry is a classic as well, but Virginia just isn’t a threat this year. I think that even if Tech wins all the games except for Wake Forest that they would stand a chance of falling enough for BYU to overcome them.
24 – Oregon 6-2 PAC-10 (Washington, @#9 USC, Arizona, @#31 Oregon State)
Oregon has been as high as #14. They have one game that will either make their season or send them out of the top-25 in #9 USC. Washington and Arizona are games the Ducks should win, but once again, with the final game being one of the top ten best rated rivalries against Oregon State, who surprisingly upset USC this last weekend, they don’t have a very easy end to their season. The rivalry game against Oregon State is known as “The Civil War” and should be quite explosive this year. Wins against Washington and Arizona will keep them pretty much status quo, but a win over USC will propel them forward again, probably even if they lose to Oregon State. A loss for sure though to both USC and Oregon State will send them spiraling out of the top-25, but might bring Oregon State up past BYU. Hope for a loss to at least USC and one to Oregon State will seal their fate and give BYU room to climb.
25 – Washington State 6-3 PAC-10 (Arizona, @Arizona State, Washington)
Washington State has been somewhat of a surprise in the Pac-10 this season. They should be favored in all three of those games remaining on their schedule and probably will jump some teams ahead of them if they win all three. A loss will surely send them out of the top-25 though as all three teams are in the bottom half of the Pac-10 conference. The game with Washington is a classic rivalry with the winner taking home the “The Apple Cup”. Washington should have good motivation to beat WSU as they lost last year to them at home. We should be cheering weekly for WSU’s opponents to beat the Cougars.
26 – Tulsa 7-1 C-USA (@Houston, Rice, @SMU, Tulane)
Tulsa receiving more votes than BYU is one of the greatest indicators this season that most of those who vote in this poll don’t really look at the wins and losses of the teams they are voting on. Had BYU not beaten Tulsa 49-24, then one could understand this situation, but with BYU having spanked The Golden Hurricane, then it makes no sense at all. Tulsa should end the season 11-1 with that lone BYU blemish and will then play in the C-USA championship against an unranked opponent, as all the C-USA teams from the East division have at least four or more losses already this year. Besides the BYU game, Tulsa will have pretty much gone through this season untested by any other quality teams. Here’s hope that more and more media representatives will realize their mistake in this oversight and make a correction, but I’m not holding my breath. A simple loss to any of these teams on their schedule, though unlikely, would send the boys from Tulsa out of the picture.
The teams behind BYU
Of the ten teams behind BYU in the AP poll, eight of them play a top-25 team in their remaining schedule. One has three and two have two games against such opponents. That’s a lot of potential for an upset and a jump over BYU.
28 – Missouri 7-2 Big 12 (@ #29 Nebraska, @Iowa State, Kansas)
29 – Nebraska 6-3 Big 12 (Missouri, @#21 Texas A&M, Colorado)
30 – Maryland 6-2 ACC (@#19 Clemson, Miami, @#16 Boston College, #22 Wake Forest)
31 – Oregon State 5-3 PAC-10 (Arizona State, @UCLA, @Stanford, #24 Oregon, #35 Hawaii)
32 – Penn State 6-3 Big Ten (@#17 Wisconsin, Temple, Michigan State)
33 – Pittsburg 6-2 Big East (@Southern Florida, @Connecticut, #3 West Virginia, #5 Louisville)
34 – Iowa 6-3 Big Ten (Northwestern, #17 Wisconsin, @Minnesota)
35 – Alabama 6-3 SEC (Mississippi State, @#13 LSU, #6 Auburn)
35 – Hawaii 6-2 WAC (@ Utah State, LA Tech, San Jose State, Purdue, #31 Oregon State)
35 – Oklahoma State 5-3 Big 12 (@#4 Texas, Baylor, @Texas Tech, #18 Oklahoma)
Conclusion
There is no science to this and most of the polls, so predicting the outcome, even if you knew who would win which games yet this season, is not real probable. You can see though that the potential for a team to fall in front of BYU is there. I like the chances of Texas A&M and Oregon stumbling, but I always worry about who can jump past you. With a poll that sees movement of one team over another in a bye weekend, you never can exactly prognosticate how this will end out. But the best advice to BYU is just to continue to win and to win convincingly.
This season the hope should be of breaking into the top-25 and of setting up the team for the 2007 season by landing them in a pre-season top-25. That therein is the recipe to success.
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