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JaredCowley | Sunday, November 12, 2006, 9:25 pm
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By Jim Vallen
COUGARBLUE
Here’s a look at the 2006 Bowl season that is beginning to clear up as this season winds down.
Thus far there are fifty-six teams already qualified for the sixty-four bowl game bids available. There are another twenty-eight teams on the bubble (teams that need two or fewer wins to become eligible).
Looking at the remaining schedules of the teams on the bubble and looking at the conference bowl tie-ins, I feel that there are eight teams that will be qualified and not have a bowl bid available from their conference tie-ins, which will leave all eight to compete for the assured opening in the San Diego Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl opposite the 2nd/3rd ranked MWC team. That bowl has a tie-in with Army (3-7), who will not bowl qualify in 2006. The most probable opponent for this bowl will probably be a team from one of the three BCS conferences that are projected to have a team available without a bowl bid available. I would imagine the Pac-10 to get first dibs because of proximity. That does indicate though that there possibly will be two BCS teams that qualify for a bowl that will not have any bowl game available.
Total bowl slots available: 64
Total teams eligible: 56
Total teams on the bubble: 28
Probable qualified teams left out: (8) 1 Big East, 1 Conference USA, 2 Mid-American, 1 Mountain West Conference, 1 Pac-10, 1 SEC, 1 Sun Belt,
Bowl commitment unfilled: 1 in Poinsettia Bowl
ACC
Already eligible (6)
Boston College (8-2), Clemson (8-3), Georgia Tech (8-2), Maryland (8-2), Virginia Tech (8-2), Wake Forest (9-1).
On the bubble (3):
Florida State (5-5) - remaining games: Western Michigan (7-3), #3 Florida (9-1)
Miami (5-5) - remaining games: @Virginia (4-6), #20 Boston College (8-2)
Virginia (4-6) - remaining games: Miami (5-5), @#19 Virginia Tech (8-2)
Bowl tie-ins: 8
Outlook: Florida State will be favored over Western Michigan, but will face a tough #3 Florida who still has an opportunity to be in the BCS National Championship game with the many losses by the other 1-loss teams in the top 10 this past week. Miami will be favored over Virginia, but not Boston College. Unless Virginia springs an upset over both of their last two opponents, then they’ll be home watching the bowl games this year.
So it’s still possible that only six teams qualify for the eight tie-ins available, which will make some empty-handed bowl qualifying team happy, but the probable scenario is that both Florida State and Miami both become bowl eligible over their next games and fill all of the ACC’s bowl tie-ins.
Probable qualified teams left out: 0
Big 12
Already eligible (8):
Texas (9-2), Nebraska (8-3), Oklahoma (8-2), Texas A&M (8-3), Kansas State (7-4), Missouri (7-3), Oklahoma State (6-4), Texas Tech (6-5)
On the bubble (1):
Kansas (5-5) - remaining games: Kansas State (7-4), @Missouri (7-3)
Bowl tie-ins: 8
Outlook: Kansas will go into both of their remaining games as the underdog and even if they win one of the next two, they would lose the tie-breaker to OSU and TT. So they would have to win out to make it to a bowl game. Not very probable.
Probable qualified teams left out: 0
Big East
Already eligible (5):
Louisville (8-1), Pittsburgh (6-4), Rutgers (9-0), South Florida (7-3), West Virginia (8-1)
On the bubble (1):
Cincinnati (5-5) - remaining games: #7 Rutgers (9-0), @Connecticut (4-5)
Connecticut (4-5) - remaining games: Cincinnati (5-5), @#10 Louisville (8-1)
Bowl tie-ins: (5) They lose one of their six since Navy is bowl qualified and takes the Meineke Car Care invitation, reducing the Big East ties to five.
Outlook: Even if Cincinnati or Connecticut were to get bowl eligible, I doubt they knock out any of the five teams already qualified and therefore I see those teams fulfilling all of the current bowl tie-ins.
Probable qualified teams left out: 1 - Cincinnati at 6-6
Big Ten
Already eligible (6):
Ohio State (11-0), Michigan (11-0), Wisconsin (10-1), Penn State (7-4), Purdue (7-4), Iowa (6-5),
On the bubble (2):
Indiana (5-6) - remaining games: @Purdue (7-4)
Minnesota (5-6) - remaining games: Iowa (6-5)
Bowl tie-ins: 7
Outlook: There is one more bowl game up for grabs with two teams down to their last opportunity. They both play teams that have better records and I would imagine that the best bet is Minnesota as they are at home. If neither makes it, then there will be one bowl birth open at large.
Probable qualified teams left out: 0
Conference USA
Already eligible (4):
Houston (8-3), Tulsa (7-3), East Carolina (6-4), Southern Miss (6-4)
On the bubble: (4)
SMU (5-5) - remaining games: Tulsa (7-3), @Rice (5-5)
UTEP (5-5) - remaining games: @Marshall (4-6), Memphis (1-9)
Rice (5-5) - remaining games: East Carolina (6-4), SMU (5-5)
Marshall (4-6) - remaining games: UTEP (5-5), @Southern Miss (6-4)
Bowl tie-ins: 5
Outlook: UTEP has the easiest schedule to qualify with both teams with losing records. Since Rice and SMU each only need one more game to qualify and they play each other, one of the two will qualify.
Probable qualified teams left out: 1
Independents
Already eligible 2:
Notre Dame (8-1), Navy (7-3)
On the bubble: 0
Bowl tie-ins: 3 (the Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego has a tie in with Army if they are bowl eligible, which they will not be and therefore there is an opening.
Outlook: There is a bowl game available from these teams.
Probable qualified teams left out: 0
Mid-American
Already eligible: 3
Central Michigan (7-3), Ohio (7-3), Western Michigan (7-3)
On the bubble: 5
Akron (5-5) - remaining games: @Ohio (7-3), Western Michigan (7-3)
Kent State (5-5) - remaining games: Eastern Michigan (1-9), @Ball State (3-7)
Northern Illinois (5-5) - remaining games: Central Michigan (7-3), @Eastern Michigan (1-9)
Bowling Green (4-6) - remaining games: Miami (OH) (1-9), @Toledo (4-6)
Toledo (4-6) - remaining games: Ball State (3-7), Bowling Green (4-6)
Bowl tie-ins: 3
Outlook: It is highly probably that at least two of the teams on the bubble will qualify leaving two teams qualified without bowl tie-ins.
Probable qualified teams left out: 2
Mountain West
Already eligible: 3
BYU (8-2), TCU (7-2), Utah (6-4)
On the bubble: (4)
New Mexico (5-5) - remaining games: @#23 BYU, San Diego State (2-7)
Wyoming (5-6) - remaining games: @ UNLV (1-9)
Air Force (4-5) - remaining games: Utah (6-4), @UNLV (1-9), @#29 TCU (7-2)
Colorado State (4-6) - remaining games: #29 TCU (7-2), @ San Diego State (2-7)
Bowl tie-ins: 4
Outlook: The most likely scenario is that both New Mexico and Wyoming will qualify with 6-6 records, but that unless a tie-breaker scenario exists, which is doubted and which would give the advantage to Wyoming in that they defeated New Mexico, then New Mexico would most likely get the remaining bowl bid.
Probable qualified teams left out: 1
Pac-10
Already eligible: 6
Arizona State (6-4), California (8-2), Oregon (7-3), Oregon State (6-4), USC (8-1), Washington State (6-5)
On the bubble: (2)
Arizona (5-5) - remaining games: @#27 Oregon, Arizona State (6-4)
UCLA (5-5) - remaining games: @ Arizona State (6-4), #4 USC
Bowl tie-ins: 6
Outlook: Both team on the bubble have only one game yet to win, but both teams face teams already qualified and both of them face Arizona State, but it’s very probable that one of the two could beat Arizona State.
Probable qualified teams left out: 1
SEC
Already eligible: 8
Alabama (6-5), Arkansas (9-1), Auburn (9-2), Florida (9-1), Georgia (7-4), Kentucky (6-4), LSU (8-2), Tennessee (7-3)
On the bubble: (1)
South Carolina (5-5) - remaining games: Middle Tennessee (7-3), @#25 Clemson (8-3)
Bowl tie-ins: 8
Outlook: South Carolina will be favored to defeat Middle Tennessee, which would qualify them for a bowl game. As there are eight teams already qualified, then it is very probable that one qualified team will be looking for a bowl game.
Probable qualified teams left out: 1
Sun Belt
Already eligible: 1
Middle Tennessee (7-3)
On the bubble: (4)
Arkansas State (5-5) - remaining games: @Troy (5-4), @Louisiana-LaFayette (4-5)
Troy (5-4) - remaining games: Arkansas State (5-5), @ Middle Tennessee (7-3), @ FIU (0-9)
Louisiana-Lafayette (4-5) - remaining games: @ FIU (0-9), Arkansas State (5-5), Louisiana-Monroe (2-7)
Bowl tie-ins: 1
Outlook: All three of the teams on the bubble play each other yet, but none of the teams on the bubble can overtake Middle Tennessee and therefore there will be bowl qualified teams without bids.
Probable qualified teams left out: 1
WAC
Already eligible: 4
Boise State (10-0), Hawaii (8-2), Nevada (7-3), San Jose State (6-3)
On the bubble: (1)
Idaho (4-6) - remaining games: @Fresno State (2-7), San Jose State (6-3)
Bowl tie-ins: 3
Outlook: It looks pretty solid that Boise State will bust the BCS and therefore the WAC will actually have 4 bowls available. It’s not probable that Idaho will overtake San Jose State for the last bowl bid and they would have to win both of their remaining games and San Jose State would have to lose all three of their remaining games.
Probable qualified teams left out: 0
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