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Are You Ready For A Rematch? |
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AF_Puma | Monday, November 20, 2006, 2:01 pm
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By Jim Vallen
COUGARBLUE
Who will BYU find opposing them in the Pioneer Pure Vision Las Vegas Bowl on Thursday, December 21st?
BYU has officially accepted a bowl bid to play the yet-to-be-determined PAC-10 fourth ranked team. There’s a log jam for that fourth position and unbelievably the probability of BYU having a rematch with Arizona came closer to reality Saturday as Arizona knocked of their third team in a row that was ranked in the top-25 at the time.
The current PAC-10 Conference standings:
1-USC (9-1, 7-1)
2-Cal (8-3, 6-2)
3-Oregon St. (7-4, 5-3)
4-Oregon (7-4, 4-4)
4-UCLA (6-5, 4-4)
4-Arizona (6-5, 4-4)
7-Washington St. (6-6, 4-5)
8-Arizona St. (6-5, 3-5)
USC and Cal cannot fall as far as fourth place and therefore they are not candidates to play opposite BYU in the Pioneer Pure Vision Las Vegas Bowl. That leaves Oregon State, Oregon, and Arizona as potential opponents. UCLA still can make it as well, but the probability of them upsetting USC is minor. Games remaining for the teams with the favored team in bold:
Saturday, November 25th
Oregon @ Oregon State
Arizona State @ Arizona
Saturday, December 2nd
USC @ UCLA
Oregon State @ Hawaii
Based on the favored team winning, the end results in the standings for the PAC-10 Conference would be:
1- USC
2- Cal
3- Oregon State (9-4, 6-3)
4- Arizona (7-5, 5-4)
5- Oregon (7-5, 4-5)
6- Washington State (6-6, 4-5) (by virtue of having beaten UCLA 37-15)
7- UCLA (6-6, 4-5)
8- Arizona State (6-6, 3-6)
Rematch City
If the scenario plays out with the favored team winning the remainder of their games, then BYU would play 7-5 Arizona in the Las Vegas Bowl and Utah would probably be playing UCLA again in the Poinsettia Bowl if the Poinsettia Bowl was interested in a rematch and selecting a PAC-10 team as a team to fill the at-large opening since Army did not bowl qualify this season. I do believe they will be interested in a west coast PAC-10 team, but I don’t believe that they are restricted to take the seventh place team instead of the eighth seeing that neither are seven-win teams, so they might opt for Arizona State. How ironic it would be to see both BYU and Utah have rematches with the PAC-10 teams that defeated them this year.
If you don’t want BYU playing Arizona in a rematch, then root for Oregon to upset Oregon.
3- Oregon (8-4, 5-4) with a win over OSU
4- Oregon State (8-5, 5-4) with a win over Arizona 17-10
5- Arizona (7-5, 5-4)
Combined with an Arizona win over Arizona State, then you have Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl.
If you don’t want BYU playing Arizona in a rematch, then root for Arizona State to upset Arizona.
3- Oregon State (9-4, 6-3)
4- Oregon (7-5, 4-5) by virtue of NCAA rule that gives tie-breakers to seven + win teams
5- Arizona (6-6, 4-5)
Combined with Oregon State beating Oregon, then you have Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl.
An upset by both Arizona State over Arizona and an Oregon upset over Oregon State, you have:
3- Oregon (8-4, 5-4) by virtue of win over OSU
4- Oregon State (8-5, 5-4)
5- Arizona State (7-5, 4-5) by virtue of win over AZ plus seven win season
6- Arizona (6-6, 4-5)
That gives us Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl
So Cougar fans should be keeping their eyes on the Oregon at Oregon State and the
Arizona State at Arizona games this next weekend.
2006 NCAA Bowl Game Picture
Total bowl slots available: (64)
Total teams eligible: (69)
Total teams on the bubble: (11)
Probable qualified teams left out: (13) 1 Big 12, 1 Big East, 2 C-USA, 2 MAC, 1 MWC, 2 PAC-10, 1 SEC, 3 Sun Belt
Bowl commitment unfilled: (2) 1 Independents, 1 Big Ten
ACC
Already eligible (7)
Boston College (9-2), Clemson (8-3), Georgia Tech (9-2), Maryland (8-3), Virginia Tech (9-2), Wake Forest (9-2),
Florida State (6-5) - remaining game: #3 Florida (10-1)
On the bubble (3):
Miami (5-6) - remaining game: #18 Boston College (9-2)
Virginia (5-6) - remaining game: @#17 Virginia Tech (9-2)
Bowl tie-ins: (8)
Outlook: With the two bubble teams facing top-20 ranked teams, it looks very likely that only 7 teams from the ACC will qualify for a bowl game and that will leave one at-large birth for some other bowl eligible school from another conference.
Probable qualified teams left out: (0)
Big 12
Already eligible (9):
Texas (9-2), Oklahoma (9-2), Nebraska (8-3), Texas A&M (8-3), Kansas State (7-5), Missouri (7-4), Texas Tech (7-5),
Battle for last bowl
Oklahoma State (6-5) - remaining game: @#13 Oklahoma
Kansas (6-5) - remaining game: @Missouri (7-4)
Oklahoma State owns the tie-breaker between these two teams with a 42-32 win over Kansas, but faces a more formidable foe at their arch rival –Oklahoma. Kansas therefore must win and have OSU lose to take the last remaining Big 12 bowl-tie in. An OSU win or a Kansas loss gives the final bowl to OSU and Kansas will be looking for an at-large bid.
On the bubble (0):
Bowl tie-ins: (8)
Outlook: There will be one Big 12 team available for an at-large bowl bid
Probable qualified teams left out: (1)
Big East
Already eligible (6):
Louisville (9-1), West Virginia (9-1), Rutgers (9-1), South Florida (7-4),
Battle for last bowl
Pittsburgh (6-5) - remaining game: #8 Louisville (9-1)
Cincinnati (6-5) - remaining game: @Connecticut (4-6)
With Cincinnati’s upset of Rutgers last Saturday, they changed the outlook of the Big East bowl scene. There is one Big East bowl-tie in still up for grabs with Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Connecticut all in the running. Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati 33-15 and holds the tie-breaker over them, but lost 46-45 to Connecticut. Pittsburgh would have to stage a major upset to win their last game, which is doubtful and probably leaves them 6-6. Cincinnati will be favored over Connecticut and a win by Cincinnati shuts all doors for Connecticut to become bowl eligible. Cincinnati’s win over Connecticut gives them the edge over a 6-6 Pittsburgh team because NCAA rules gives a 7 win team precedence over a 6 win team in when filling conference bowl tie-ins.
On the bubble (1):
Connecticut (4-6) - remaining games: Cincinnati (6-5), @#8 Louisville (9-1)
Bowl tie-ins: (5) They lose one of their five since Navy is bowl qualified and takes the Meineke Car Care invitation, reducing the Big East ties to four.
Outlook: The Big East looks to possibly receive two BCS bowl bids this season if WVU beats Rutgers. So that gives the conference five bids available. Even with that, they already have one team in excess of their bowl tie-ins and therefore will leave at least one team looking for an at-large bid. The possibility does exist still that Connecticut could become bowl eligible and in doing so would knock both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati out of contention for the Big East last bowl tie-in as they would hold wins over both schools and that would leave the Big East with two bowl qualified teams looking for an at-large bowl birth. That’s not likely as one of their opponents will be Louisville.
Probable qualified teams left out: (1) - Pittsburgh at 6-6
Big Ten
Already eligible (7):
1-Ohio State (12-0), 2-Michigan (11-1), 3-Wisconsin (11-1), 4-Penn State (8-4), 5-Purdue (8-4), 6-Minnesota (6-6), 7-Iowa (6-6),
On the bubble (0):
Bowl tie-ins: (7)
Outlook: The Big 10 Conference is the only conference with the standings already set and are noted above. Seven bowl tie-in, seven teams that qualify. Sounds simple. Problem is that now with Michigan ranked #2 in the BCS, which would pull two teams out of the mix creating a vacancy in the Big 10 bowl tie-ins. I therefore project an opening for an at-large bowl qualified team.
Probable qualified teams left out: (0)
Conference USA
Already eligible (6):
Houston (9-3), Tulsa (7-4), East Carolina (6-5), Southern Miss (7-4)
Battle for last bowl
Rice (6-5) - remaining game: SMU (6-5)
SMU (6-5) - remaining games: @Rice (6-5)
Both Rice and SMU play this week. The winner gets the remaining Conference USA bowl tie-in.
On the bubble: (4)
UTEP (5-6) - remaining games: Memphis (1-10)
Marshall (5-6) - remaining game: @Southern Miss (7-4)
Bowl tie-ins: (5)
Outlook: The loser of the Rice and SMU game has already bowl qualified, but there will be no remaining conference bowl tie-ins available and will become an at-large school. The same goes for UTEP and Marshall if they qualify. Both are looking only at possible at-large bids. UTEP is very likely to be in the same boat as the loser of the Rice/SMU matchup.
Probable qualified teams left out: (2) SMU/Rice loser (6-6) and UTEP (6-6)
Independents
Already eligible: (2)
Notre Dame (10-1), Navy (8-3)
On the bubble: (0)
Bowl tie-ins: (3) The Poinsettia Bowl in San Diego has a tie in with Army if they are bowl eligible, which they will not be and therefore there is an at-large opening. Navy has accepted a bid to the Meineke Car Car Bowl.
Outlook: There is a bowl game available from these teams.
Probable qualified teams left out: (0)
Mid-American
Already eligible: (5)
Ohio (8-3), Central Michigan (7-4)
Battle for last bowl
Western Michigan (7-4) - remaining game: @Akron (5-6)
Kent State (6-5) - remaining game: @Ball State (4-7)
Northern Illinois (6-5) - remaining game: @Eastern Michigan (1-10)
A win by Western Michigan gives them the third and final Mid-American Conference bowl tie-in bid and virtue of their over-all record. They also already have the edge over Northern Illinois upon losing even if NIU wins their last game and ties WMU with a 7-5 record by virtue of WMU’s 16-14 win over NIU. If WMU loses and Kent State wins, since the two teams didn’t meet head-to-head, Kent Stake would get the nod with a better conference record. No matter what NIU does, they are an at-large bowl qualified team.
On the bubble: (1)
Akron (5-6) - remaining game: Western Michigan (7-4)
Bowl tie-ins: (3)
Outlook: Ohio and Central Michigan are heading for the conference championship and both will take two of the Mid-American Conference’s 3 bowl tie-ins. The remaining bowl will be decided this week between Western Michigan and Kent State with WMU being in the drivers seat.
Probable qualified teams left out: (2) Northern Illinois (6-5) for sure and either Western Michigan or Kent State.
Mountain West
Already eligible: (4)
BYU (9-2), TCU (8-2), Utah (7-4)
Battle for last bowl
Wyoming (6-6/5-3) – season completed (defeated New Mexico and Colorado State)
Air Force seems to be the only team that can burst Wyoming’s bowl bid bubble and they could only do it by beating UNLV and TCU. That would give AFA a 6-6 record and a 5-3 MWC record and with a win over Wyoming, the remaining MWC bowl bid in the New Mexico Bowl.
On the bubble: (3)
New Mexico (5-6, 3-4) - remaining game: San Diego State (2-8)
Air Force (4-6, 3-3) - remaining games: @UNLV (1-10), @#27 TCU (8-2)
Colorado State (4-6, 1-5) - remaining games: #27 TCU (8-2), @ San Diego State (2-8)
Bowl tie-ins: (4) BYU has accepted a bowl bid to the Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas Bowl.
Outlook: It appears highly likely that New Mexico will win their final game at home against San Diego State and become bowl eligible with a 6-6 record. But with possible tie breakers and having lost to Wyoming 10-14, they would become an at-large bowl qualified team. It’s not highly probably that either AFA or CSU will become bowl eligible.
Probable qualified teams left out: (1) New Mexico (6-6)
Pac-10
Already eligible: (8)
(Note: Pac-10 standings noted as of week 12)
1-USC (9-1, 7-1), 2-California (8-3, 6-2), 3-Oregon State (7-4, 5-3), 4-Oregon (7-4, 4-4), 4-UCLA (6-5, 4-4), 4-Arizona (6-5, 4-4), 7-Washington State (6-6, 4-5), 8-Arizona State (6-5, 3-5),
On the bubble: (0)
Bowl tie-ins: (6)
Outlook: This conference reeks of great rivalries for the remaining games for the four teams ranked third or fourth in the Pac-10. Oregon State, with a win in the “Civil War” with Oregon next week, assures them of at least a third place finish in the Pac-10. Two Pac-10 teams will be at-large bowl qualified teams.
Probable qualified teams left out: (2) Probably Washington State (6-6) and Arizona State (6-5)
SEC
Already eligible: (9)
Arkansas (10-1), Auburn (10-2), Florida (10-1), LSU (9-2), Georgia (7-4), Kentucky (7-4), Tennessee (7-3)
Battle for last bowl
Alabama (6-6, 2-6) regular season completed
South Carolina (6-5, 3-5) - remaining game: @#24 Clemson (8-3)
South Carolina gets the nod if they tie Alabama as they have the better conference record.
On the bubble: (0)
Bowl tie-ins: (8)
Probable qualified teams left out: (1) Alabama is a bowl qualified at-large team
Sun Belt
Already eligible: (2)
Middle Tennessee (7-4), Arkansas State (6-5)
On the bubble: (2)
Troy (5-5) - remaining games: @ Middle Tennessee (7-4), @ FIU (0-10)
Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5) - remaining games: Arkansas State (6-5), Louisiana-Monroe (2-8)
Bowl tie-ins: (1)
Outlook: Arkansas State has a game left with Louisiana-Lafayette (5-5) and will be favored, but only has a 4-2 conference record. Middle Tennessee with a perfect 6-0 conference record has a remaining game with Troy, who is 4-1 and both teams meet in the last game of the season. If Troy beats Middle Tennessee and then FIU, which they would have to do to end up with at least 7 wins, they will be conference champs and will represent the Sun Belt in a bowl game. If Troy loses to MTS, then they can only become an at-large bowl qualified team. Both of the teams on the bubble are only one win away from being bowl qualified and both have at least one foe they will be favored to beat, but the best they can do is to be an at-large bowl qualified team.
Probable qualified teams left out: (3) Arkansas State, Troy, Louisiana-Lafayette
WAC
Already eligible: (4)
Boise State (11-0), Hawaii (9-2), Nevada (8-3), San Jose State (6-4)
On the bubble: (0)
Bowl tie-ins: (3) Hawaii has already accepted a bid to be in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl.
Outlook: It looks pretty solid that Boise State will bust the BCS and therefore the WAC will actually have 4 bowls available.
Probable qualified teams left out: (0)
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