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AF_Puma | Thursday, December 21, 2006, 7:19 am
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By Jim Vallen
COUGARBLUE
Can Curtis Brown throw the "he can't run against BCS talent" monkey off his back tonight?
John Beck was successful this season in finally getting the "he can't win the big game" monkey off his back. Can Curtis Brown do the same?
Curtis Brown is in first place on the all-time BYU rushing list. No one will ever question his contribution to BYU as a multi-purpose back and especially as a team leader and class representative. He is 110 yards away from becoming only the first BYU running back to gain 1,000 yards rushing in consecutive seasons.
This could be Curtis Brown’s last game as a running back. Many of the reviews I have read says that, more than likely, Curtis will have an opportunity as a free agent with some pro team and they would be looking at him more as a pass catcher out of the backfield, but probably won’t be drafted by the NFL. The survivability of free agents in the NFL is not very good.
So this could be Curtis Brown’s last game in his football career as a running back. It certainly will be his last collegiate one. So this game then will be his last opportunity to dispel the rumors that he was a great BYU multi-purpose running back who just seemed to struggle in BCS competition.
For his career Curtis Brown has averaged, over four seasons, 4.97 yards per carry in 624 carries. Not bad at all. But when he has been up against Bowl Championship Series (BCS) teams, he has struggled with only 2.62 yards per carry in 102 carries.
2006 Season (attempts/yards/average per carry)
Arizona……11…23 yds...2.09
Boston College……15…49 yds…3.27
2005 Season
Boston College……8…33 yds…4.13
Notre Dame……12…23 yds…1.92
California……12…28 yds…2.33
2004 Season
Notre Dame……12…15 yds…1.25
Stanford…..16…47 yds…2.94
USC……6…15 yds…2.50
2002 Season
Syracuse……2…2 yds…1.00
Georgia Tech …8…32 yds…4.00
The Oregon Ducks vulnerability this season, besides turnovers (9th in Pac-10 with a -0.83 margin (#107th nationally)), has been run defense. They are ranked ninth in the Pac-10 (74th nationally) allowing a 4.18 yards per carry average.
Here is what their season has looked like against the run.
Team/Leading Rusher (attempts/net yards gained/average per carry)
Stanford……35…100 yds…2.86
Gerhart, Toby……16…55 yds…3.44
Fresno State……41…206 yds…5.02
Wright, Dwayne……29…154 yds…5.31
Oklahoma……43…207 yds……4.81
Peterson, Adrian……34…211 yds…6.21
Arizona State……34…142 yds…4.18
Torain, Ryan……19…113 yds…5.95
California……42…235 yds…5.60
Forsett, Justin……27…163 yds…6.04
UCLA……30…104 yds…..3.47
Markey, Chris……17…97 yds…5.71
Washington State……41…193 yds…4.71
Tardy, Dwight……20…145 yds…7.25
Portland State……32…111 yds…3.47
Mu’Ammar, Ali……23…139 yds…6.04
Washington……21…13 yds…0.62
Rankin, Louis……10…33 yds…3.30
USC……28…167 yds…5.96
Washington, C……15…119 yds…7.93
Arizona……45…230 yds…5.11
Henry, Chris……29…191 yds…6.56
Oregon State……30…88 yds…2.93
Bernard, Y……22…68 yds…3.09
Only in 25% of their games (4 games) this season they have been able to keep an opposing player from gaining at least 100 yards in rushing and they didn't against the two non-BCS teams that they faced.
That is encouraging.
So based on actual experience this season, if Curtis Brown is the leading rusher for BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl, he should at least do better than the 2.62 average per carry he has experienced in his career versus BCS schools as not one leading rusher this season averaged lower than 3.09 yards per carry.
For quarterback John Beck, that monkey came off his back finally this season, first against TCU, and then ending the season against Utah. Maybe this is finally the opportunity that Curtis Brown will have to finally to do the monkey shake. It’s a load off his back that he would openly welcome and there will be 40K plus fans in Las Vegas cheering him on. I'm thinking he'll do it.
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