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BYU MEN: Cougars look to break losing streak against Xavier |
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JaredLloyd | Wednesday, March 14, 2007, 11:37 pm
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Jason Franchuk
DAILY HERALD
LEXINGTON, Ky. — Winning in the NCAA tournament offers no stone-cold truths about the future.
It’s exhilarating at the time, to be sure, but trying to predict every ramification of such an effort is like guessing when Britney Spears will fall apart next.
It’s a sketchy science. But heading into the first round today as a No. 8 seed against No. 9 Xavier — 25-8 BYU’s best chance, statistically, in years — the Cougars would like a little spice in their life.
They’d like to throw caution to the wind, find out what life would be like if they could just once, somehow, win a first-round game. It hasn’t been done since 1993, as a No. 7 seed.
The last four attempts ended in disappointment.
BYU lost in 1995 as a No. 8 and and was twelfth in 2001, 2003 and 2004. Not good for a school that yearns to reach a new level with a second-year coach.
“Winning is very important to the success of your program,” BYU’s Dave Rose said.
Austin Ainge, a senior, said, “It would be a big accomplishment” to end BYU’s postseason woes, which include a loss in the opening round of the NIT a year ago.
There are no guarantees, though, to what a win would mean.
Ask former Utah coach Ray Giacoletti, who was handed a pink slip just two years after a Sweet 16 appearance.
Or look no further than Xavier, which went to the Elite Eight in 2004 and hasn’t reached that level again. It has at least built more consistency than the Cougars in getting to the tournament, six times in seven years with a couple of second-round appearances. Yet it’s hard to call that program a national power.
If BYU fans can stomach a little pessimism, there’s a chance their world could be severely altered with a win or two.
After Xavier went to the Elite Eight, it lost its coach to a much bigger program (Ohio State) and Sean Miller was promoted. He couldn’t get the team to the postseason his first season, and it lost in the first round last year.
Of course, the flip side should be honored. The Musketeers had been building up to the Elite Eight showing since a 2001 NCAA appearance. They lost the opener that year, then hit the second round the following two seasons. It was textbook work of building a program up and striking it rich.
That’s what Rose wants, along with the staff around him.
“What you’re looking for is consistency,” said BYU associate athletic director Brian Santiago. “That gives your program the best chance.”
He points out Gonzaga, a fellow non-BCS school which has turned itself into a perennial contender to make the field of 65, and a run.
BYU went to the Big Dance two consecutive years, but failed in 2003 or 2004 to escape the defiant odds of a No. 12 seed. No wonder.
Since 1985, No. 12 seeds are 29-59 in the first round.
But this year could be quite different. BYU is coming off a demanding schedule in which it feels confident of itself for this environment, a large and historic Rupp Arena that will be somewhat in the opponent’s favor as far as crowd support — it’s just 80 miles from the Xavier campus.
Look at four games as to why BYU’s got a really good shot, though: solid losing effort at UCLA’s Pauley Pavilion in the opener; more of a struggle at Michigan State on NBA court in Detroit, but still a good learning experience; win at Air Force; tight Mountain West Conference tournament final Saturday at UNLV.
“We’ve had tough games this year, so we’re ready for this one,” Ainge said.
There could, of course, be aftershocks to getting the job done. Rose won’t touch the subject, but there’s little doubt he’d be a hotter commodity with a win or two at this level after two strong seasons in which he’s already 45-17.
Top assistant Dave Rice says he doesn’t think about the immediate prospect of becoming a Division I head coach, except it is surely a desire at some point. No doubt a run helps an assistant. Kind of like it helped Thad Matta once get the Xavier job before moving to Ohio State.
Santiago smiles at the thought of such upheaval at BYU. Not that it can’t happen — it’s business, baby — but winning produces opportunities, and sometimes turnover.
He calls Rose’s assistants upward-mobile — just as Bronco Mendenhall has them with the football program, and has already lost one assistant to a larger, better-paying school (Colorado).
“It’s part of the territory with winning,” Santiago said. “You’d rather have that than losing, and no one wants your guys.”
The Cougars have been close to reaching a new level. They were in the game against UConn four years ago until the final minute.
Mike Rose still can’t believe the first-round game against Syracuse the following year, 2004, wasn’t a different outcome.
BYU had a future first-round NBA pick and a wicked hot streak shooting early, which even forced the Orange out of its legendary zone defense.
Who knows what the program would look like today if Gerry McNamara didn’t score a career-high 43 points?
Perhaps Steve Cleveland, who was rumored to be on a few schools’ watch lists, would’ve bitten at a new offer. Rose could’ve been promoted at BYU a year earlier if Cleveland left, or gotten his head coaching break elsewhere. Whatever the case, it seemed quite plausible for the Cougars to make a deep charge three years ago.
A second-round game against Maryland loomed, but center Rafael Araujo, who would up as an NBA lottery pick, speculatively looked like he had a huge advantage against the Terrapins.
Remember, No. 1 seed Stanford had been knocked out in the second round. It could’ve been a sweet run to the Elite Eight, assuming the Cougars could’ve toppled No. 8 seed Alabama in the third round.
“We had an unbelievable window,” Santiago said.
Mike Rose can’t stop shaking his head, thinking about McNamara’s destruction of a dream.
“It’s hard to say what would’ve happened,” he said in the locker room a day before BYU’s next chance. “But it would’ve been great to win that game and have a chance to find out.”
This year has a window, too, only the pane of glass doesn’t seem so thick as it did the past few tries.
The No. 9 seeds somewhat surprisingly have the edge in opening-round games. But those No. 8’s are still 41-47 in the opening round last 21 years — a lot better than working from a 12-spot.
Jimmy Balderson isn’t so worried about history or the future, as he is about this year’s team reaching its potential.
“We are all excited to be here, we’ve had these goals all year to be in the NCAA tournament,” the senior said. “We just want to get some wins and play the best we can.” |
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